In the recycled metal shredding and recycling sector, lead and copper are steadily developing based on their respective industrial foundations and market demands. There is no absolute substitution between the two, but they show differentiated trends due to application scenarios and policy orientations. Among them, recycled copper has become a core direction with greater growth potential, relying on high-value demand and industrial upgrading.
The development of recycled lead has entered a mature stage. Relying on the closed-loop system of "production-recycling-regeneration" for lead-acid batteries, it has become the non-ferrous metal category with the highest proportion of recycling. The implementation of the policy of including recycled lead ingots in the futures delivery system in 2026 has further standardized industry development and improved risk management capabilities. However, the application of recycled lead is highly concentrated in the storage battery field, and the tightening of environmental supervision continues to accelerate the elimination of small and medium-sized production capacities. The industry growth is more dependent on the efficiency improvement of the stock market, with relatively limited incremental space.
Recycled copper is ushering in a golden period of high-value development. The explosive growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, energy storage, high-end equipment manufacturing and other fields has spawned rigid demand for high-quality recycled copper. In 2026, the proportion of global new energy sector's demand for recycled copper will increase by 8 percentage points compared with 2024. At the same time, the carbon emission of recycled copper smelting is more than 80% lower than that of primary copper. Under the green trade rules such as the "dual carbon" goal and the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, it has become the preferred choice for manufacturing enterprises to reduce carbon footprint and avoid trade barriers. Coupled with the iteration of intelligent sorting and high-efficiency smelting technologies, the recycling efficiency and product purity of recycled copper have been continuously improved. The proportion of high-value alloy applications is expected to increase from 15% to 25%, with significant market incremental space.
From the perspective of industrial practice in shredding and recycling, lead has a mature recycling system and stable raw material supply, serving as the basic profit sector for recycling enterprises. In contrast, copper's high added value and strong market demand, combined with the policy's key support for the high-value utilization of recycled non-ferrous metals, have become the core engine driving the technological upgrading and profit growth of the recycling industry. The two complement each other, and recycled copper, supported by both industrial upgrading and demand increment, has become the core trend track in the shredding and recycling field now and in the future.
