Since the start of 2026, copper prices have maintained an upward momentum. Domestic copper prices have broken through 100,000 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year increase of over 35%. This price surge is not a result of short-term speculation, but an inevitable outcome of rigid supply shortages, diversified demand booms, coupled with favorable macroeconomic conditions, which truly reflects the fundamentals of the market.
Tight supply conditions have laid the core foundation for rising copper prices. Global key copper mines have seen declining output due to geological disasters, equipment maintenance, and ore grade degradation. Six major overseas mining companies have cut their annual production plans by over 500,000 tons. The supply growth of copper mines in 2026 is only about 1%, far lagging behind the pace of market demand. Meanwhile, rising copper mining costs and long commissioning cycles for new mines have pushed copper concentrate treatment charges to a historic low. The dual pressure on both mining and smelting sectors has kept the rigid constraints on global copper supply prominent.
The comprehensive boom in demand has injected strong impetus into the upward trend of copper prices. The demand structure of copper has achieved traditional sector stabilization and emerging sector growth. As the largest consumer, the power industry accounts for over 40% of total copper consumption. With the 4 trillion yuan investment plan of the State Grid during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and the annual 180 billion yuan investment of China Southern Power Grid, the construction of UHV power grids and distribution networks continues to drive copper consumption.
New energy vehicles and the AI industry have emerged as new growth engines. A single new energy vehicle consumes 4-5 times more copper than a traditional fuel vehicle, while AI supercomputing centers double their copper usage. Each gigawatt of photovoltaic and wind power installed capacity consumes thousands of tons of copper. The resonance between emerging sectors and traditional infrastructure has boosted copper demand, with the global copper demand growth rate expected to reach 3%-4% in 2026.
The favorable macro and market environment has further amplified the upward elasticity of copper prices. Expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have brought global liquidity easing, and the weakening US dollar has made dollar-denominated copper more attractive, drawing substantial capital into the copper market. Meanwhile, global copper inventories remain at a low level, with tight stockpiles in key consumer regions. Combined with the inventory-hoarding expectations in the trade sector, the financial and industrial attributes of copper have formed a positive feedback loop, further consolidating the strong trend of copper prices.
From a fundamental perspective, the tight balance between global copper supply and demand will not change in the short term. The core contradiction of limited supply growth and sustained high demand will persist for a long time. As a core strategic resource for energy transition and digital transformation, copper has a clear demand prospect, and its price trend will continue to maintain a strong overall operation based on solid fundamentals.
